Wellington’s NFL Super Bowl Picks

For the last two weeks we have heard almost every single angle, break down and infinitesimal report of who, what, when, then and how teams were, are and will be successful in past, current and future super bowls. You can watch or listen to ESPN, In Side the NFL, Sports Talk, Mike and Mike, The Heard, Sports Groove and fans hold on to their words as experts. What I realized as I lost both AFC and NFC championship playoff picks in down to the wire mental blunders was that I am just a dude with an opinion and so is everyone else. It sounds really great when Trent Dilfer gives you an intricate break down of how the offense is going to work but when it’s all said and done he’s giving you an opinionated educated guess. So here is my educated guesstimational (my new word) opinion.

The New England Patriots became a contender after their loss to the New York Giants in week nine of the regular season. In contrast the Giants had their struggles and were not at their healthiest till week seventeen. The Giants found a way to pick up the slack for injuries on both sides of the ball and win. Entering the playoffs they became the healthiest team. The Patriots became consistent and that consistency was winning. On paper they do not seem to have much to work with but they play to their strengths. Their primary game changers (other than Tom Brady) are tight ends Gronkowski and Hernandez. At 6’6” Gronkowski has the ability to position his body to block out defensive players and make catches. With his athletic ability he puts up big numbers after the catch. Who knew power forwards made the best tight ends? Wes Welker kills defenses in the slot and creates big yards after his catches. Once defenses are on their heels New England then gives you running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis. New England really doesn’t have a running game but being able to spread out a defense and make them focus on the quick hitting passing game makes Green-Ellis very productive as a runner. Offensive Tackle Sebastian Vollmer is back after being out about two months. The question is will he have the footwork to handle New York’s defensive line. Do not count out Chad Ochocinco. He is still a better receiver than most and if he gets significant playing time and his role is kept simple he will be effective and possibly a factor. All I have to say about Tom Brady is that his receivers do not really drop the ball because he throws the ball right where it’s supposed to be and they have no choice but to catch his passes.

The New York Giants offense is hitting on all cylinders. Eli Manning may have an easier job because he actually has running game in Ahmad Bradshaw who practiced two straight days in a row this week since his toe injury. When combined with Brandon Jacobs as the second running back their percentage of winning game rises. If New England has trouble with their running game it will become “Giants receivers gone wild”. The arsenal of Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz all step up when their number is called. Tight End Jake Ballard might quietly have a big game combined with Bear Pascoe they should have a busy day making the running game a big factor. The Giants seem to have the better offense but that is difficult to gage especially with a quick hitting offense like New England.

New England’s defense has been called questionable but they are the reason why the Pats are in Indianapolis. Defensive tackle Vince Wolfork has been the surging current in this defense throughout the playoffs. He has made it difficult for teams to stuff the ball down the middle and he has made the secondary with holes look pretty good. I will not take credit away from Julien Edelman because he was a key factor in the stopping the Baltimore Ravens final drive but Julie you need to tell Big Vince thank you, I appreciate you. Know that defensively the Patriots are creative and will use players according to their strengths. This is a very football intelligent team all the way around. Expect to see them go from a 3:4 to 4:3 defenses. Do not be surprise if he throws in a 5:2 monster. Whatever Bill Belickek does it will most likely work in New England’s favor.

The Giants appear to have the upper hand on defense. Maybe it’s because they seem to have the bigger names and they are all present, accounted for and ready to play. The key word for the Giants is healthy. Let’s start up front with the Haitian sensation Jason Pierre-Paul, he’s fast, athletic and is hard to contain on a pass rush if explodes past the tackles. The other punch combination comes from the Nigerian Englishman Ositadimma “Osi” Umenyiora. After being questioned about how much heart and ability he had a couple of years ago he has stepped up and has made his presence known. There is no doubt that there will be a pass rush. The Giants can put pressure on quarterbacks without blitzing. This leaves the defense with creative disguises on defense. Because of their pass rushing will they isolate themselves out of running plays by being steered past the running backs? We’ll see how that turns out won’t we? The secondary with Antrel Rolle, Corey Webster and an ever improving Prince Amukamara are a much better secondary than what New England has to offer defensively. The Line backing core led by Mathius Kiwanuka is second to none.

If you did not realize while you read this that I am leaning towards the Giants, I am. I have picked against the Giants the entire playoffs until now. In the spirit of superstition I will go against the G-men and take the Patriots to win 23-17 but inside I want to G-Men to kick that buttocks 27-26 in a nail bitter…. Go G-MEN!!

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